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08 Şubat, 2011

Turkish Monetary Policy Credit Positive, Moody’s Says

February 07, 2011, 6:38 AM EST
By Steve Bryant
(Updates with Yilmaz comment in third paragraph.)
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Turkish central bank’s monetary- policy mix is “credit positive” because it limits speculative capital inflows and narrows the current-account deficit, Moody’s Investors Service said.
The combination of lower interest rates to deter so-called hot-money inflows, and higher reserve requirements to damp demand, is “not without risk but they are likely to be successful,” Sarah Carlson, a senior analyst for Moody’s, said in an e-mailed report today. “The timing of future policy rate increases will be important,” because failure to respond quickly to a pick-up in inflation could damage the bank’s credibility, she said.
Central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz started the new monetary policy in December, with Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan saying it was unique in the world on Jan. 26.
Two months of rate cuts have taken the benchmark one-week repo rate to a record low of 6.25 percent. Yilmaz said the bank is more than compensating for that by forcing banks to deposit more reserves at the central bank and that the total impact of the policy is tighter monetary conditions.
Inflation slowed to a four-decade low of 4.9 percent in January from 6.4 percent the month before. Yilmaz said he expects further falls in the coming months before inflation accelerates again. The bank forecasts year-end consumer-price growth of 5.9 percent.
Moody’s rates Turkish credit Ba2, two notches below investment grade, with a positive outlook.
The economy probably grew about 8 percent last year, driven by domestic demand, Yilmaz said. The deficit in the current account, the widest measure of the balance of trade and services, widened to $44.9 billion, or about 6 percent of gross domestic product, in the 12 months through November.

--Editors: Philip Sanders, Heather Langan
To contact the reporters on this story: Steve Bryant in Ankara at
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at

T.C.M.B. Dikkat Çeken Para Politikası Kombinasyonu Üzerine Umut Verici Bir Yazı